Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 20 · 16:27 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Staffing Services

THE TRADER READBroad relative move, confirmed beyond the cohort—but not by flow

8 of 12 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the downside across 8.2 effective names. Common-bar coverage spans 12 of 24 cohort members. G is also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 19%, so the basket is not yet clean.

Price breadth23 up · 0 down-1.1% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment19%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 19/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth4 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

6 timed events · 09:30–15:55 ET
TIMING READA verified headline preceded the first measured price move in the common-bar window by 875 minutes. The timing makes it a catalyst candidate, not proof of cause.
  3. 5-minute inferenceEPAM registered the first material downside path

    -1.66% session path at the threshold · EPAM

  4. 5-minute inferenceADBE registered a material downside path

    -2.09% session path at the threshold · ADBE

  5. 5-minute inferenceBR registered a material downside path

    -0.54% session path at the threshold · BR

  6. 5-minute inferenceADSK registered a material downside path

    -1.23% session path at the threshold · ADSK

2 earlier filing context receipts

WED, JAN 14ADBE filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

TUE, APR 28BLKB filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 8.2 effective names. CTSH represents 18.1% of absolute path energy; 8 of 12 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionBroad18.1% from the largest path
Effective names8.2 / 1212 of 24 cohort members had common bars
Direction breadth8/12 aligneddownside relative path · 3 counter-moving
Largest moverCTSH 18.1%36.0% from the top two paths
CTSH18.1%Aligned contributor · path -3.47% · basket -0.29pp
EPAM17.9%Aligned contributor · path -3.43% · basket -0.29pp
ACN14.6%Aligned contributor · path -2.79% · basket -0.23pp
ADBE10.0%Aligned contributor · path -1.92% · basket -0.16pp
BR8.4%Aligned contributor · path -1.60% · basket -0.13pp
ADSK8.1%Aligned contributor · path -1.55% · basket -0.13pp
BLKB7.5%Counter-move · path +1.43% · basket +0.12pp
DXC6.4%Counter-move · path +1.22% · basket +0.10pp
GDDY3.9%Aligned contributor · path -0.74% · basket -0.06pp
CHKP3.5%Counter-move · path +0.68% · basket +0.06pp
EXLS1.0%Aligned contributor · path -0.19% · basket -0.02pp
ADP0.6%Flat / inactive path · path -0.11% · basket -0.01pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. EPAM moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -1.66%
  2. ADBE registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -2.09%
  3. BR registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.54%
  4. ADSK registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -1.23%
  5. BLKB registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +2.00%
  6. DXC registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.96%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Oct 1 · 09:30 ETMove visible 10:35 ETOct 1 · 15:55 ET
Group median -1.14%Strongest relative path BLKBWeakest relative path CTSH

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

22/25 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across ACN, ADBE, ADP, BLKB, BR, CTSH, DXC, EPAM, GDDY, GRND, JKHY, PAYC, PCTY, QTWO, TYL.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“Interest Expense Interest expense ($M) Percentages indicate expenses as a percentage of total revenue 26 First Quarter 2026 Form 10-Q Table of Contents Blackbaud, Inc. (Unaudited) The decrease in interest expense in dollars and as a percentage of total revenue during the three months ended March 31, 2026, when compared to the same period in 2025, was primarily due to a decrease in portfolio effective interest rate on relatively flat average daily borrowing.”

BLKB 10-Q · 2026-04-29
credit / rates

“As a result of this indebtedness and other borrowings, our interest payment obligations increased and our leverage ratio (as defined in our 2024 Credit Facilities) rose during 2024 and continued to increase into early 2025, reaching a peak of 2.91 to 1.00 as of March 31, 2025.”

BLKB 10-K · 2026-02-18
restructuring affecting expense

“Income from operations increased by $13.4 million and $35.7 million, during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, respectively, when compared to the same periods in 2024, driven largely by the following: + Decreases in compensation costs other than stock-based compensation of $10.3 million and $33.0 million, respectively, primarily due to our sale of EVERFI + Decreases in amortization of intangible assets from business combinations of $8.2 million and $24.1 million, respectively, largely due to the previously disclosed impairment charge related to our EVERFI asset group in December 2024, which primarily included finite-lived intangible assets + Decrease in Security Incident-related expenses of $10.0 million, for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, largely related to decreases in loss contingency accruals.”

BLKB 10-Q · 2025-11-03
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

1 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

GMoving with group

EXLS · text peer

MANot confirming

ADP · text peer

WDAYNot confirming

WK · text peer

AMPLNot confirming

ADP · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
BLKBROPWKBRADBEJKHYPCTYITADSKGDDYTYLCTSHADPEXLSINTUNICEQTWOACNPAYXCHKPPAYCDXCEPAMINFY

12/25 active23 rising · 1 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
BLKBBlackbaud, Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
+2.1%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 22.6% of observed group sessions
ROPRoper Technologies, Inc.
Elevated · 91/100
+3.8%
Flow confirmerActive in 6.5% of observed group sessions
WKWorkiva Inc.
Elevated · 82/100
+4.5%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 32.3% of observed group sessions
BRBroadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.
Elevated · 57/100
-0.0%
Aligned path contributorActive in 19.4% of observed group sessions
ADBEAdobe Inc.
Elevated · 57/100
+0.6%
Aligned price + flowActive in 19.4% of observed group sessions
JKHYJack Henry & Associates, Inc.
Elevated · 55/100
+0.4%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 35.5% of observed group sessions
PCTYPaylocity Holding Corporation
Elevated · 53/100
+2.8%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 35.5% of observed group sessions
ITGartner, Inc.
Elevated · 53/100
+3.4%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 12.9% of observed group sessions
ADSKAutodesk, Inc.
Elevated · 50/100
+1.1%
Aligned price + flowActive in 6.5% of observed group sessions
GDDYGoDaddy Inc.
Elevated · 49/100
+1.5%
Aligned path contributorActive in 25.8% of observed group sessions
TYLTyler Technologies, Inc.
Elevated · 49/100
+3.8%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 6.5% of observed group sessions
CTSHCognizant Technology Solutions Corporation
Elevated · 46/100
+5.9%
Aligned price + flowActive in 0% of observed group sessions
ADPAutomatic Data Processing, Inc.
Elevated · 46/100
+2.3%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 19.4% of observed group sessions
EXLSExlService Holdings, Inc.
Quiet · 40/100
+6.0%
Watch / laggardActive in 3.2% of observed group sessions
INTUIntuit Inc.
Quiet · 40/100
+2.6%
Watch / laggardActive in 6.5% of observed group sessions
NICENICE Ltd.
Quiet · 39/100
+4.9%
Watch / laggardActive in 6.5% of observed group sessions
QTWOQ2 Holdings, Inc.
Quiet · 39/100
+1.9%
Watch / laggardActive in 22.6% of observed group sessions
ACNAccenture plc
Quiet · 37/100
+15.8%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
PAYXPaychex, Inc.
Quiet · 37/100
+2.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 29% of observed group sessions
CHKPCheck Point Software Technologies Ltd.
Quiet · 36/100
+1.7%
Watch / laggardActive in 6.5% of observed group sessions
PAYCPaycom Software, Inc.
Quiet · 34/100
+4.7%
Watch / laggardActive in 32.3% of observed group sessions
DXCDXC Technology Company
Quiet · 26/100
+7.5%
Watch / laggardActive in 3.2% of observed group sessions
EPAMEPAM Systems, Inc.
Quiet · 25/100
+5.6%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
INFYInfosys Limited
Quiet · 20/100
+5.8%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
BLKBBlackbaud, Inc.Most unusual+2.1%22.6% of 31 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
ROPRoper Technologies, Inc.Participating+3.8%6.5% of 31 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
WKWorkiva Inc.Participating+4.5%32.3% of 31 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
BRBroadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.Participating-0.0%19.4% of 31 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ADBEAdobe Inc.Participating+0.6%19.4% of 31 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
JKHYJack Henry & Associates, Inc.Participating+0.4%35.5% of 31 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
PCTYPaylocity Holding CorporationParticipating+2.8%35.5% of 31 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ITGartner, Inc.Participating+3.4%12.9% of 31 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ADSKAutodesk, Inc.Participating+1.1%6.5% of 31 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
GDDYGoDaddy Inc.Participating+1.5%25.8% of 31 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
TYLTyler Technologies, Inc.Participating+3.8%6.5% of 31 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CTSHCognizant Technology Solutions CorporationParticipating+5.9%0% of 31 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
ADPAutomatic Data Processing, Inc.Participating+2.3%19.4% of 31 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
EXLSExlService Holdings, Inc.Quiet / lagging+6.0%3.2% of 31 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
INTUIntuit Inc.Quiet / lagging+2.6%6.5% of 31 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
NICENICE Ltd.Quiet / lagging+4.9%6.5% of 31 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
QTWOQ2 Holdings, Inc.Quiet / lagging+1.9%22.6% of 31 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
ACNAccenture plcQuiet / lagging+15.8%0% of 31 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
PAYXPaychex, Inc.Quiet / lagging+2.4%29% of 31 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
CHKPCheck Point Software Technologies Ltd.Quiet / lagging+1.7%6.5% of 31 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
PAYCPaycom Software, Inc.Quiet / lagging+4.7%32.3% of 31 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
DXCDXC Technology CompanyQuiet / lagging+7.5%3.2% of 31 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
EPAMEPAM Systems, Inc.Quiet / lagging+5.6%0% of 31 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
INFYInfosys LimitedQuiet / lagging+5.8%0% of 31 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

3/3 events completed
30 minutes-0.86%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.35% · MAE -1.54%
60 minutes-1.03%0% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.35% · MAE -1.54%
Session close-0.31%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.34% · MAE -0.49%
Next-session close-1.16%0% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.35% · MAE -1.54%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 4 completed episodes across 31 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support43 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes4Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions31Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-12 → 2026-08-195 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-07-09 → 2026-08-0619 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-06-24 → 2026-07-015 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-06-17 → 2026-06-182 active sessions11.1% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
JKHY35.5% · 3 episodes
PCTY35.5% · 2 episodes
PAYC32.3% · 3 episodes
WK32.3% · 2 episodes
PAYX29% · 3 episodes
GDDY25.8% · 4 episodes
BLKB22.6% · 3 episodes
QTWO22.6% · 1 episode
ADBE19.4% · 2 episodes
ADP19.4% · 1 episode
BR19.4% · 2 episodes
IT12.9% · 2 episodes
ADSK6.5% · 2 episodes
CHKP6.5% · 2 episodes
INTU6.5% · 1 episode
NICE6.5% · 1 episode
ROP6.5% · 2 episodes
TYL6.5% · 2 episodes
DXC3.2% · 1 episode
EXLS3.2% · 1 episode
ACN0% · 0 episodes
CTSH0% · 0 episodes
EPAM0% · 0 episodes
GRND0% · 0 episodes
INFY0% · 0 episodes