Themes / Cluster
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 14 · 18:20 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Consumer Staples

THE TRADER READBroad price confirmation, weak flow alignment

4 of 4 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the upside across 3.6 effective names. Capital-flow agreement is 16%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth4 of 4 rising+0.3% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment16%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowNormalActivity score 59/100 · lift 1.0×
Evidence depth3 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 09:35–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferencePEP registered the first material upside path

    +0.40% session path at the threshold · PEP

  2. 5-minute inferenceSFD registered a material upside path

    +0.61% session path at the threshold · SFD

  3. 5-minute inferenceKO registered a material upside path

    +0.43% session path at the threshold · KO

  4. 5-minute inferenceMDLZ registered a material upside path

    +0.38% session path at the threshold · MDLZ

2 earlier filing context receipts

MON, JUL 27MDLZ filing documented shared operating contextpricing · date precision only

TUE, JUL 28KO filing documented shared operating contextpricing · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is balanced across 3.6 effective names. PEP represents 37.7% of absolute path energy; 4 of 4 members align with the up relative path.

ConstructionBalanced37.7% from the largest path
Effective names3.6 / 4Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadth4/4 alignedupside relative path · 0 counter-moving
Largest moverPEP 37.7%62.6% from the top two paths
PEP37.7%Dominant mover · path +0.51% · basket +0.13pp
MDLZ24.9%Aligned contributor · path +0.34% · basket +0.09pp
KO19.6%Aligned contributor · path +0.27% · basket +0.07pp
SFD17.8%Aligned contributor · path +0.24% · basket +0.06pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. PEP moved higher firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path +0.40%
  2. SFD registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.61%
  3. KO registered a material higher path60m after the first price move · path +0.43%
  4. MDLZ registered a material higher path70m after the first price move · path +0.38%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Aug 14 · 09:35 ETMove visible 11:10 ETAug 14 · 15:55 ET
Group median +0.30%Strongest relative path PEPWeakest relative path SFD

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

4/4 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across KO, PEP, SFD.

pricing

“Price/mix was impacted by a variety of factors and events, including, but not limited to, the following: • EMEA — favorable pricing initiatives, including inflationary pricing, partially offset by unfavorable mix;”

KO 10-Q · 2026-07-29
restructuring affecting expense

“on-GAAP measure (6) % 2.5 % 16 % 15 % 3 % 34 % 2 % 3 % 37 Table of Contents 24 Weeks Ended 6/14/2025 PFNA PBNA IB Franchise EMEA LatAm Foods Asia Pacific Foods Corporate unallocated expenses Total Reported, GAAP measure $ 2,927 $ (179) $ 812 $ 590 $ 877 $ 170 $ (825) $ 4,372 Items Affecting Comparability (a) Mark-to-market net impact — — — — — — (31) (31) Restructuring and impairment charges 115 173 5 49 19 4 47 412 Acquisition and divestiture-related charges/credits 21 66 — — — — — 87 Impairment and other charges — 1,529 — 251 — 80 — 1,860 Core, non-GAAP measure $ 3,063 $ 1,589 $ 817 $ 890 $ 896 $ 254 $ (809) $ 6,700 (a) See “Items Affecting Comparability” for further information. (b) Income amount represents adjustments for changes in estimates of previously recorded amounts. n/m - Not meaningful due to the impact of prior-year impairment and other charges.”

PEP 10-Q · 2026-07-09
input costs affecting expense

“Higher raw material costs were also driven by higher packaging, nuts, energy, edible oils, grains, and other ingredient costs, as well as unfavorable year-over-year currency exchange impacts on imported materials, partially offset by lower dairy and sugar costs.”

MDLZ 10-Q · 2026-07-28
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

MKCNot confirming

PEP · customer

Filing receipt
“Sales to one of our Flavor Solutions segment customers, PepsiCo, Inc., accounted for consolidated sales of approximately 12% in 2025, and 13% in both 2024 and 2023.”
BYNDRelationship only · live confirmation unavailable

PEP · partner

Filing receipt
“The Planet Partnership In 2021, we entered into TPP, a joint venture with PepsiCo, Inc., to develop, produce and market innovative snack products made from plant-based p…”
CELHNot confirming

PEP · partner

Filing receipt
“While we have specifically identified certain information as being forward-looking in the context of its presentation, we caution you that all statements contained in th…”
BTINot confirming

MDLZ · supplier

Filing receipt
“Currency-related items increased net revenues by $499 million, primarily driven by favorable currency translation rate changes, due to the strength of most currencies re…”

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
PEPKOMDLZSFD

4/4 active4 rising · 0 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
PEPPepsiCo, Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
+0.1%
Dominant path moverActive in 60% of observed group sessions
KOCoca-Cola Company (The)
Elevated · 87/100
+0.3%
Aligned price + flowActive in 100% of observed group sessions
MDLZMondelez International, Inc.
Elevated · 73/100
+0.1%
Aligned price + flowActive in 100% of observed group sessions
SFDSmithfield Foods, Inc.
Elevated · 71/100
+1.2%
Aligned price + flowActive in 80% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
PEPPepsiCo, Inc.Most unusual+0.1%60% of 5 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
KOCoca-Cola Company (The)Participating+0.3%100% of 5 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
MDLZMondelez International, Inc.Participating+0.1%100% of 5 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
SFDSmithfield Foods, Inc.Participating+1.2%80% of 5 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

2/2 events completed
30 minutes-0.34%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.01% · MAE -1.49%
60 minutes-0.31%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.01% · MAE -1.49%
Session close-0.98%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.01% · MAE -1.49%
Next-session close-1.48%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.01% · MAE -1.49%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 3 completed episodes across 5 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support9 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes3Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions5Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-121 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-061 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-28 → 2026-07-303 active sessions22.2% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
KO100% · 3 episodes
MDLZ100% · 3 episodes
SFD80% · 3 episodes
PEP60% · 3 episodes