Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Oct 7 · 18:22 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Gold Mining

THE TRADER READUSAS dominates an otherwise mixed group path

5 of 7 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the upside across 3.5 effective names. NEM, CDE, NG are also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 41%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth7 of 7 falling+0.3% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment41%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 2/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth4 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 09:40–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceSVM registered the first material upside path

    +0.84% session path at the threshold · SVM

  2. 5-minute inferenceAEM registered a material upside path

    +0.69% session path at the threshold · AEM

  3. 5-minute inferenceBVN registered a material upside path

    +0.89% session path at the threshold · BVN

  4. 5-minute inferenceRGLD registered a material upside path

    +0.79% session path at the threshold · RGLD

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is concentrated across 3.5 effective names. USAS represents 46.7% of absolute path energy; 5 of 7 members align with the up relative path.

ConstructionConcentrated46.7% from the largest path
Effective names3.5 / 7Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadth5/7 alignedupside relative path · 1 counter-moving
Largest moverUSAS 46.7%63.6% from the top two paths
USAS46.7%Dominant mover · path -1.62% · basket -0.23pp
SVM16.9%Aligned contributor · path +0.59% · basket +0.08pp
AEM12.8%Aligned contributor · path +0.44% · basket +0.06pp
BVN9.5%Aligned contributor · path +0.33% · basket +0.05pp
RGLD9.1%Aligned contributor · path +0.32% · basket +0.04pp
PSLV4.3%Aligned contributor · path +0.15% · basket +0.02pp
PHYS0.7%Flat / inactive path · path +0.02% · basket +0.00pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. SVM moved higher firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path +0.84%
  2. AEM registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.69%
  3. BVN registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.89%
  4. RGLD registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.79%
  5. PSLV registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.45%
  6. PHYS registered a material higher path40m after the first price move · path +0.38%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Oct 7 · 09:40 ETMove visible 09:55 ETOct 7 · 15:55 ET
Group median +0.32%Strongest relative path SVMWeakest relative path USAS

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

No high-confidence shared filing driver is available. The market relationship is observed, but the cause remains unexplained.

CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

4 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

NEMMoving with group

RGLD · text peer

CDEMoving with group

RGLD · text peer

NGMoving with group

RGLD · text peer

HYMCMoving with group

RGLD · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
BVNAEMPSLVPHYSUSASSVMRGLD

5/7 active0 rising · 7 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
BVNCompañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A.
Most unusual · 100/100
-2.5%
Aligned path contributorActive in 83.3% of observed group sessions
AEMAgnico Eagle Mines Limited
Elevated · 46/100
-3.0%
Aligned price + flowActive in 0% of observed group sessions
PSLVSprott Physical Silver Trust
Elevated · 41/100
-2.9%
Aligned price + flowActive in 0% of observed group sessions
PHYSSprott Physical Gold Trust
Elevated · 40/100
-1.5%
Flow divergenceActive in 0% of observed group sessions
USASAmericas Gold and Silver Corporation
Elevated · 39/100
-6.8%
Dominant path moverActive in 0% of observed group sessions
SVMSilvercorp Metals Inc.
Quiet · 38/100
-4.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 16.7% of observed group sessions
RGLDRoyal Gold, Inc.
Quiet · 26/100
-2.8%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
BVNCompañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A.Most unusual-2.5%83.3% of 6 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
AEMAgnico Eagle Mines LimitedParticipating-3.0%0% of 6 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
PSLVSprott Physical Silver TrustParticipating-2.9%0% of 6 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
PHYSSprott Physical Gold TrustParticipating-1.5%0% of 6 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
USASAmericas Gold and Silver CorporationParticipating-6.8%0% of 6 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
SVMSilvercorp Metals Inc.Quiet / lagging-4.2%16.7% of 6 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
RGLDRoyal Gold, Inc.Quiet / lagging-2.8%0% of 6 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

2/2 events completed
30 minutes-0.07%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +1.72% · MAE -0.87%
60 minutes+0.17%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +1.72% · MAE -0.87%
Session close+0.04%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +1.72% · MAE -0.87%
Next-session close+1.36%100% continuation · n=2Median MFE +1.72% · MAE -0.87%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 4 completed episodes across 6 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support49 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes4Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions6Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-19 → 2026-08-243 active sessions12.5% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-061 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-291 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-011 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
BVN83.3% · 3 episodes
SVM16.7% · 1 episode
AEM0% · 0 episodes
PHYS0% · 0 episodes
PSLV0% · 0 episodes
RGLD0% · 0 episodes
USAS0% · 0 episodes