Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 20 · 16:27 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Regional Banks

THE TRADER READBroad price confirmation, weak flow alignment

5 of 5 measured session-normalized paths align to the downside across 4.0 effective names. Common-bar coverage spans 5 of 7 cohort members. Capital-flow agreement is 10%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth5 of 5 falling-1.3% session-normalized median path
Capital-flow alignment10%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 35/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth2 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 15:55–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceCIB registered the first material downside path

    -2.56% session path at the threshold · CIB

  2. 5-minute inferenceBSAC registered a material downside path

    -1.45% session path at the threshold · BSAC

  3. 5-minute inferenceBCH registered a material downside path

    -1.29% session path at the threshold · BCH

  4. 5-minute inferenceGGB registered a material downside path

    -1.03% session path at the threshold · GGB

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

Session-normalized 5m paths

Observed movement is balanced across 4.0 effective names. CIB represents 37.8% of absolute path energy; 5 of 5 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionBalanced37.8% from the largest path
Effective names4.0 / 55 of 7 cohort members had common bars
Direction breadth5/5 aligneddownside relative path · 0 counter-moving
Largest moverCIB 37.8%57.6% from the top two paths
CIB37.8%Dominant mover · path -2.73% · basket -0.55pp
BSAC19.8%Aligned contributor · path -1.42% · basket -0.28pp
BCH18.1%Aligned contributor · path -1.31% · basket -0.26pp
GGB17.2%Aligned contributor · path -1.24% · basket -0.25pp
MUFG7.1%Aligned contributor · path -0.51% · basket -0.10pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. CIB moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -2.56%
  2. BSAC registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -1.45%
  3. BCH registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -1.29%
  4. GGB registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -1.03%
  5. MUFG registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.43%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized
Sep 25 · 15:55 ETMove visible 15:45 ETSep 28 · 15:55 ET
Group median -1.31%Strongest relative path MUFGWeakest relative path CIB

Observed member paths normalized to the session. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

No high-confidence shared filing driver is available. The market relationship is observed, but the cause remains unexplained.

CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

No high-confidence filing-linked outsiders are available for this group yet.

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
GGBCCUCIBBSACBCHMUFGAKO-B

5/7 active0 rising · 5 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
GGBGerdau S.A.
Most unusual · 100/100
-1.2%
Aligned price + flowActive in 11.1% of observed group sessions
CCUCompania Cervecerias Unidas, S.
Elevated · 99/100
—
Active; unclassifiedActive in 22.2% of observed group sessions
CIBGrupo Cibest S.A.
Elevated · 76/100
-2.7%
Dominant path moverActive in 22.2% of observed group sessions
BSACBanco Santander-Chile
Elevated · 64/100
-1.4%
Aligned price + flowActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
BCHBanco de Chile
Elevated · 59/100
-1.3%
Aligned price + flowActive in 44.4% of observed group sessions
MUFGMitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.
Quiet · 29/100
-0.5%
Watch / laggardActive in 11.1% of observed group sessions
AKO-BEmbotelladora Andina S.A.
Quiet · 12/100
—
Watch / laggardActive in 22.2% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
GGBGerdau S.A.Most unusual-1.2%11.1% of 9 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
CCUCompania Cervecerias Unidas, S.Participating—22.2% of 9 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CIBGrupo Cibest S.A.Participating-2.7%22.2% of 9 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
BSACBanco Santander-ChileParticipating-1.4%33.3% of 9 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
BCHBanco de ChileParticipating-1.3%44.4% of 9 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
MUFGMitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.Quiet / lagging-0.5%11.1% of 9 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
AKO-BEmbotelladora Andina S.A.Quiet / lagging—22.2% of 9 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Observed follow-through

6/6 events completed
30 minutes+0.20%67% continuation · n=3Median MFE +0.78% · MAE -0.11%
60 minutes+0.68%67% continuation · n=3Median MFE +0.78% · MAE -0.11%
Session close+0.33%100% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.68% · MAE -0.66%
Next-session close+0.08%67% continuation · n=3Median MFE +0.78% · MAE -0.11%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 2 completed episodes across 9 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support22 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes2Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions9Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-07 → 2026-08-197 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-07-30 → 2026-07-312 active sessions25% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
BCH44.4% · 1 episode
BSAC33.3% · 1 episode
AKO-B22.2% · 1 episode
CCU22.2% · 1 episode
CIB22.2% · 1 episode
GGB11.1% · 1 episode
MUFG11.1% · 1 episode