Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 21 · 16:11 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Oil & Gas E&P

THE TRADER READRecurring relationship, inactive in the latest snapshot

4 of 7 measured session-normalized paths align to the upside across 4.1 effective names. TALO, PR, REPX are also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 9%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth3 up · 3 down+0.8% session-normalized median path
Capital-flow alignment9%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 7/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth4 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 09:40–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceCRK registered the first material upside path

    +2.99% session path at the threshold · CRK

  2. 5-minute inferenceEXE registered a material upside path

    +0.62% session path at the threshold · EXE

  3. 5-minute inferenceCNX registered a material downside path

    -0.49% session path at the threshold · CNX

  4. 5-minute inferenceRRC registered a material upside path

    +0.77% session path at the threshold · RRC

2 earlier filing context receipts

TUE, FEB 10AR filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

WED, JUL 29CNX filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

Session-normalized 5m paths

Observed movement is balanced across 4.1 effective names. CRK represents 40.6% of absolute path energy; 4 of 7 members align with the up relative path.

ConstructionBalanced40.6% from the largest path
Effective names4.1 / 7Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadth4/7 alignedupside relative path · 2 counter-moving
Largest moverCRK 40.6%57.9% from the top two paths
CRK40.6%Dominant mover · path +2.38% · basket +0.34pp
AR17.3%Aligned contributor · path +1.01% · basket +0.14pp
RRC15.1%Aligned contributor · path +0.88% · basket +0.13pp
EXE12.8%Aligned contributor · path +0.75% · basket +0.11pp
CNX8.2%Counter-move · path -0.48% · basket -0.07pp
EQT4.4%Counter-move · path -0.26% · basket -0.04pp
GPOR1.5%Flat / inactive path · path +0.09% · basket +0.01pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. CRK moved higher firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path +2.99%
  2. EXE registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.62%
  3. CNX registered a material lower path25m after the first price move · path -0.49%
  4. RRC registered a material higher path80m after the first price move · path +0.77%
  5. GPOR registered a material higher path80m after the first price move · path +0.59%
  6. AR registered a material higher path100m after the first price move · path +0.67%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized
Aug 21 · 09:40 ETMove visible 11:25 ETAug 21 · 15:55 ET
Group median +0.75%Strongest relative path CRKWeakest relative path CNX

Observed member paths normalized to the session. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

7/7 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across CNX, CRK, EQT, RRC.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“Net cash provided by operating activities increased between periods primarily due to higher natural gas revenues, lower ad valorem taxes, lower interest expense and changes in working capital, partially offset by lower NGLs and oil revenues, higher lease operating expense and higher gathering, compression, processing and transportation expense during the year ended December 31, 2025.”

AR 10-K · 2026-02-11
credit / rates

“Borrowings under our bank credit facility are subject to a borrowing base that is currently set at $2.0 billion.”

CRK 10-Q · 2026-07-30
capital investment / capacity affecting capex

“The timing of most of our future capital expenditures is discretionary because of our limited number of material long-term capital expenditure commitments.”

CRK 10-Q · 2026-07-30
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

3 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

TALOMoving with group

EQT · text peer

PRMoving with group

GPOR · text peer

REPXMoving with group

RRC · text peer

NOGNot confirming

EQT · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
CRKCNXGPOREXERRCAREQT

5/7 active3 rising · 3 falling · 1 flat

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
CRKComstock Resources, Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
+2.9%
Dominant path moverActive in 37% of observed group sessions
CNXCNX Resources Corporation
Elevated · 87/100
-0.3%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 59.3% of observed group sessions
GPORGulfport Energy Corporation
Elevated · 83/100
-0.4%
Flow confirmerActive in 85.2% of observed group sessions
EXEExpand Energy Corporation
Elevated · 75/100
+0.0%
Aligned price + flowActive in 55.6% of observed group sessions
RRCRange Resources Corporation
Elevated · 66/100
+0.9%
Aligned price + flowActive in 40.7% of observed group sessions
ARAntero Resources Corporation
Quiet · 49/100
+0.7%
Watch / laggardActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
EQTEQT Corporation
Quiet · 41/100
-0.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 55.6% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
CRKComstock Resources, Inc.Most unusual+2.9%37% of 27 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
CNXCNX Resources CorporationParticipating-0.3%59.3% of 27 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
GPORGulfport Energy CorporationParticipating-0.4%85.2% of 27 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
EXEExpand Energy CorporationParticipating+0.0%55.6% of 27 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
RRCRange Resources CorporationParticipating+0.9%40.7% of 27 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
ARAntero Resources CorporationQuiet / lagging+0.7%33.3% of 27 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
EQTEQT CorporationQuiet / lagging-0.3%55.6% of 27 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

2/2 events completed
30 minutes-0.12%0% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.24% · MAE -1.17%
60 minutes-0.07%0% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.24% · MAE -1.17%
Session close-0.45%0% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.24% · MAE -1.17%
Next-session close-0.93%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.24% · MAE -1.17%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 4 completed episodes across 27 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support46 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes4Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions27Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-171 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-07 → 2026-08-1019 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-06-24 → 2026-07-026 active sessions15.4% composition consistency through the episode
2026-06-121 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
GPOR85.2% · 3 episodes
CNX59.3% · 4 episodes
EQT55.6% · 4 episodes
EXE55.6% · 3 episodes
RRC40.7% · 3 episodes
CRK37% · 3 episodes
AR33.3% · 1 episode