Feed / HLMN

Hillman Solutions Corp.

HLMN

Industrials · 7.07 -3.0% today

Partial group confirmationMarket checked 11 Sept, 09:30 GMT-4

Market read

Hillman Solutions Corp.'s move is spreading beyond its market group.

HLMN accounts for 21.8% of the group's measured movement across 8.2 effective names. all 12 measured members are falling in raw terms, but 8 of 12 SPY-adjusted paths align to the downside. Capital-flow agreement is 32%, so confirmation is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured group move.

MOVE ANATOMY

Is this move genuinely shared?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths
Role in the moveAligned contributor#1 of 12 by movement share
Group movement share21.8%Absolute path energy—not portfolio weight
Relative path-1.92%aligned
Effective breadth8.2 / 12broad
Relative alignment8/12downside path · 4 counter-moving
Capital-flow agreement32%not yet clean
SEQUENCE READ

BLDR, EXP, LPX moved materially before HLMN. HLMN crossed its material path threshold at 14:45 ET, 85 minutes after the first measured mover.

EVIDENCE COVERAGE

4 of 18 members in Housing Construction are active. 0 of 3 disclosed connections are confirming.

What would change this read
  • At least 12 of 18 durable members become active together.
  • Capital-flow agreement rises above 55%.
  • IBP remains aligned with the group in the next market snapshot.

Invalidation: The live read weakens if participation falls to 6 of 18 members or fewer.

Watch this read

Research brief

The story so far

Industrials · Tools & Accessories

HLMN accounts for 21.8% of the group's measured movement across 8.2 effective names. all 12 measured members are falling in raw terms, but 8 of 12 SPY-adjusted paths align to the downside. Capital-flow agreement is 32%, so confirmation is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured group move.

Evidence that supports

No thresholded supportive filing evidence is available yet.

Evidence that challenges

No thresholded adverse filing evidence is available yet.

What would clarify the read
  • At least 12 of 18 durable members become active together.
  • Capital-flow agreement rises above 55%.
  • IBP remains aligned with the group in the next market snapshot.

Company research

Understand the business, not just the ticker

As of Sep 11, 2026
Business model and earnings drivers

Use the company’s filings to identify the few operating, demand, cost, capital and regulatory variables that determine its earnings power.

Key research questions
  • Which operating variable is changing?
  • Is that change durable, cyclical or one-off?
  • What evidence would disprove the current interpretation?
Annual periods7
Price observations319
Usable filing statements121
Verified relationships3
Evidence supporting the case
  • Latest annual revenue changed +5.4% year over year.
  • Operating margin changed +1.3 percentage points in the latest annual period.
  • Net margin changed +1.4 percentage points in the latest annual period.
  • Macroeconomic conditions has repeated favorable evidence across 4 filings.
  • Material customer HD most recently reported revenue +5.7% year over year.
Evidence challenging the case
  • Pricing and mix has repeated adverse evidence across 4 filings.
  • Restructuring and cost reductions has repeated adverse evidence across 3 filings.
  • Tariffs and trade policy has repeated adverse evidence across 3 filings.
Questions before a position
  • P/E is 28% above the available filing-peer median; determine whether growth and quality justify the difference.
  • EV/sales is 63% below the available filing-peer median; determine whether growth and quality justify the difference.
Longer-term price context

Price as of Sep 10, 2026

6.99
6m-14.8%12m-30.0%24m
Annual trajectory

Reported annual revenue and per-share history. This is accounting history, not a forecast.

PeriodRevenueYoYDiluted EPSShare change
2021-12-25$1.4B+4.2%$-0.28+49.8%
2022-12-31$1.5B+4.2%$-0.08+44.2%
2023-12-30$1.5B-0.7%$-0.05+0.2%
2024-12-28$1.5B-0.3%$0.09+2.2%
2025-12-27$1.6B+5.4%$0.20+0.3%

What management says matters

Persistent and emerging business drivers

Credit and interest ratesmixed · 4 filings
18 | March 28, 2026 Form 10-Q Table of Contents Resharp Instafob Other accrued expenses Other non-current liabilities Other accrued expenses Other non-current liabilities Total Fair value as of December 27, 2025 $ 229 $ 4,071 $ 25 $ 33 $ 4,358 Fair value of c…
10-Q · Apr 28, 2026
Macroeconomic conditionspositive · 4 filings
During the quarter, our business was impacted by macroeconomic influences like economic uncertainty and concerns over housing affordability resulting from the combined pressure of high home prices and elevated interest rates, both of which impact existing hom…
10-Q · Apr 28, 2026
Pricing and mixmixed · 4 filings
Robotics and Digital Solutions' cost of sales as a percentage of net sales decreased due to price increases and sales mix.
10-Q · Apr 28, 2026
Demand and volumemixed · 3 filings
Canada's core performance was negatively impacted by mid-single digit volume declines partially offset by the favorable mid-single digit impact of foreign exchange.
10-Q · Apr 28, 2026

Valuation discipline

Descriptive valuation snapshot

Price/sales 0.9× · EV/sales 1.3×. Comparisons use only industry-matched filing peers.

Scenario scaffold

Mechanical 2.0-year scenarios are available as editable assumptions, not consensus.

Price action

How the market is pricing the story

7.07-3.0% today

Jodie does not have enough daily observations to draw a useful short-term chart for this asset. The latest quoted price was checked 11 Sept, 09:30 GMT-4; this is a coverage limitation, not a flat-price conclusion.

Developments

No sourced recent-development timeline yet

Jodie has not returned a relevant primary source or news item for HLMN. This is an evidence-coverage gap, not a conclusion that nothing material happened.

Business and financial condition

Reported financial figures are not available yet

Jodie has not returned structured SEC XBRL fundamentals for this asset. This is a coverage limitation, not an assessment of the business or its financial health.

Filing analysis

No comparable filing assessment is available yet

Jodie has not yet found a suitable current-versus-prior filing comparison for HLMN. This does not mean the latest filing was neutral or immaterial.

Business ecosystem

The relationships behind HLMN

Customers, suppliers, partners and competitors named in company filings—not inferred from headlines.

Depends on

HD43.4% of HLMNcustomerFeb 17, 2026

For the year ended December 27, 2025, the largest two customers, Lowe's and Home Depot, accounted for 43.4 % of total revenues and 28.7 % of the year-end accounts receivable balance.

JEFJefferies Financial Group Inc.investeeFeb 17, 2026

RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS 50 | December 27, 2025 Form 10-K Hillman, Jefferies Financial Group Inc., certain other financial sponsors, certain CCMP affiliated investors and certain Oak Hill affiliated investors entered into the Amended and Restated Registrati…

ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc.competitorFeb 17, 2026

6 | December 27, 2025 Form 10-K Competition Our primary competitors in the national accounts marketplace for fasteners are Primesource Building Products, Inc., Midwest Fastener Corporation, Illinois Tool Works Inc., Spectrum Brands, and competition from direc…

Filing peers

Companies whose filings use similar operating language.

Open the three relationships above to see Jodie’s filing proof. Pro unlocks 7 more links, every receipt, and alerts when connected names begin moving. Unlock the full network →

What is moving around it

Live connections

HLMN is currently a Participant in the organic co-movement group Housing Construction. This group is discovered from market behaviour rather than assigned from an industry taxonomy. 3 filing-linked names are in the relationship map; none is currently confirmed as moving with the group.

Context history

Theme membership history

No durable theme membership has been observed for this name yet.