Capital investment and capacitypositive · 5 filings
“Capital spending increased $478.5 million primarily as a result of increased system modernization.”10-Q · Aug 5, 2026 ↗
Atmos Energy Corporation
ATO
Market read
Atmos Energy Corporation's move is being confirmed by its market group.
ATO accounts for 14.7% of the group's measured movement across 3.9 effective names. raw member direction is mixed; 0 of 6 session-normalized paths align to the mixed. Capital-flow agreement is 21%, so confirmation is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured group move.
MOVE ANATOMY
Session-normalized 5m pathsIs this move genuinely shared?
Role in the moveIndependent mover#3 of 6 by movement share
Group movement share14.7%Absolute path energy—not portfolio weight
Relative path-0.27%mixed
Effective breadth3.9 / 6balanced
Relative alignment0/6mixed path · 0 counter-moving
Capital-flow agreement21%not yet clean
SEQUENCE READ
NWN moved materially before ATO. ATO crossed its material path threshold at 12:15 ET. OGS, NJR followed.
What changed
- Revenue increased 4.8% versus the comparable filing period.
EVIDENCE COVERAGE
5 of 6 members in Natural Gas Exposure are active. 0 of 1 disclosed connections are confirming.
What would change this read
Watch this read- At least 4 of 6 durable members become active together.
- Capital-flow agreement rises above 55%.
- A filing-linked outsider such as SWX begins moving with the group.
Invalidation: The live read weakens if participation falls to 2 of 6 members or fewer.
Research brief
The story so far
ATO accounts for 14.7% of the group's measured movement across 3.9 effective names. raw member direction is mixed; 0 of 6 session-normalized paths align to the mixed. Capital-flow agreement is 21%, so confirmation is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured group move.
Evidence that supports
- Revenue increased 4.8% versus the comparable filing period.
- Operating margin improved 6.4 percentage points.
- Net income increased 30.2% versus the comparable filing period.
Evidence that challenges
No thresholded adverse filing evidence is available yet.
What would clarify the read
- At least 4 of 6 durable members become active together.
- Capital-flow agreement rises above 55%.
- A filing-linked outsider such as SWX begins moving with the group.
Company research
Understand the business, not just the ticker
Business model and earnings drivers
Use the company’s filings to identify the few operating, demand, cost, capital and regulatory variables that determine its earnings power.
Key research questions
- Which operating variable is changing?
- Is that change durable, cyclical or one-off?
- What evidence would disprove the current interpretation?
Annual periods9
Price observations616
Usable filing statements96
Verified relationships1
Evidence supporting the case
- Latest annual revenue changed +12.9% year over year.
- Operating cash flow covered net income at 1.71x in the latest annual period.
- Capital investment and capacity has repeated favorable evidence across 5 filings.
- Demand and volume has repeated favorable evidence across 5 filings.
- Tariffs and trade policy has repeated favorable evidence across 5 filings.
Evidence challenging the case
- Diluted shares increased 5.2% in the latest annual period.
Questions before a position
- P/E is 37% above the available filing-peer median; determine whether growth and quality justify the difference.
- EV/sales is 109% above the available filing-peer median; determine whether growth and quality justify the difference.
Longer-term price context
Price as of Oct 1, 2026
156.386m-15.7%12m-8.4%24m+14.3%
Annual trajectory
Reported annual revenue and per-share history. This is accounting history, not a forecast.
PeriodRevenueYoYDiluted EPSShare change
2021-09-30$3.4B+20.8%—+5.7%
2022-09-30$4.2B+23.3%—+6.4%
2023-09-30$4.3B+1.8%—+5.1%
2024-09-30$4.2B-2.6%—+5.2%
2025-09-30$4.7B+12.9%—+5.2%
What management says matters
Persistent and emerging business drivers
Demand and volumepositive · 5 filings
“Our customers’ demand on our system is not necessarily indicative of our ability to meet current or anticipated market demands or immediate delivery requirements because of factors such as the physical limitations of gathering, storage and transmission system…”10-K · Nov 14, 2025 ↗
Supply chain and availabilitymixed · 5 filings
“However, there is no earnings impact on our distribution segment as a result of the use of these financial instruments because the gains and losses arising from the use of these financial instruments are recognized in the consolidated statement of comprehensi…”10-Q · Aug 5, 2026 ↗
Tariffs and trade policypositive · 5 filings
“a $12.1 million increase due to higher capacity contracted by tariff-based customers due to their increased peak day demand.”10-Q · Aug 5, 2026 ↗
Valuation discipline
Descriptive valuation snapshot
Price/sales 5.3× · EV/sales 5.3×. Comparisons use only industry-matched filing peers.
Scenario scaffold
Mechanical 2.0-year scenarios are available as editable assumptions, not consensus.
Price action
How the market is pricing the story
156.38-0.0% today
Jodie does not have enough daily observations to draw a useful short-term chart for this asset. The latest quoted price was checked 1 Oct, 15:55 GMT-4; this is a coverage limitation, not a flat-price conclusion.
Developments
No sourced recent-development timeline yet
Jodie has not returned a relevant primary source or news item for ATO. This is an evidence-coverage gap, not a conclusion that nothing material happened.
Business and financial condition
Reported financial figures are not available yet
Jodie has not returned structured SEC XBRL fundamentals for this asset. This is a coverage limitation, not an assessment of the business or its financial health.
Latest filing assessment
Fundamentals strengthened in the latest filing
10-Q filed 2026-08-05 against the comparable filing from 2025-08-06.
OperationsconstructiveEvidence score +3
liquidityneutralEvidence score 0
valuationmixed
Capital and cash conversion
Investment load increased
Capital spending consumed more revenue while free-cash-flow margin declined.
- Capital spending YoY
- +18.4%
- Capital spending / revenue
- +73.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin
- -33.6%
- FCF margin change
- -11.0 pts
Capex, revenue, and operating cash flow are matched to the same reported duration. Reported accounting context, not a forecast or trading recommendation.
What improved
- Revenue increased 4.8% versus the comparable filing period.
- Operating margin improved 6.4 percentage points.
- Net income increased 30.2% versus the comparable filing period.
What weakened
No thresholded deterioration was identified.
Filing receipts
“Operating cash flow decreased by $29.9 million primarily due to the timing of gas cost recoveries.”
“However, there is no earnings impact on our distribution segment as a result of the use of these financial instruments because the gains and losses arising from the use of these financial instruments are recognized in the consolidated statement of comprehensive income as a component of purchased gas cost when the related costs are recovered through our rates and recognized in revenue.”
“35 Partially offset by: • an $8.4 million increase in depreciation expense and property taxes associated with increased capital investments.”
Historical filing backfill generated after the original filing window. It is not part of Jodie's live track record.
Business ecosystem
The relationships behind ATO
Customers, suppliers, partners and competitors named in company filings—not inferred from headlines.
Depends on
COPConocoPhillipssupplierNov 14, 2025 ▾
“Major suppliers during fiscal 2025 were ARM Energy Management LLC, Cima Energy, LP, ConocoPhillips Company, ECO Energy Natural Gas LLC, EnLink Gas Marketing LP, Sequent Energy Management LLC, Symmetry Energy Solutions, LLC, Targa Gas Marketing LLC, Tenaska Ma…”
Filing peers
Companies whose filings use similar operating language.
Open the three relationships above to see Jodie’s filing proof. Pro unlocks every receipt, and alerts when connected names begin moving. Unlock the full network →
What is moving around it
Live connections
ATO is currently a Leader in the organic co-movement group Natural Gas Exposure. This group is discovered from market behaviour rather than assigned from an industry taxonomy. 1 filing-linked name are in the relationship map; none is currently confirmed as moving with the group.
Context history
Theme membership history
No durable theme membership has been observed for this name yet.